Conservative Politics Macro Model

🚨 BREAKING: IRAN STRIKE IMMINENT

US military ready for strikes by Saturday. Trump considering "weeks-long" campaign. Iran repositioning strike drones under cover of Russia-Iran joint drills in Strait of Hormuz. UK blocked RAF bases for US attacks. Poland ordering citizens to evacuate Iran immediately. Geneva nuclear talks ongoing but gaps wide. Kremlin urging "restraint." USS Gerald R. Ford + USS Abraham Lincoln carrier groups in position. This is potentially Trump 47's defining foreign policy moment.

📍 Bottom Line Assessment

Foreign policy dominates. Iran crisis decision looming (Saturday readiness). Board of Peace met today ($17B+ committed). Ukraine talks resume Tue/Wed. Domestically: DHS shutdown continues, FEMA deployments frozen. Personnel: Daniel McCarthy joins Heritage (conservative intellectual reinforcement). 2028 dynamics: Vance at 53% in NH, +38 nationally. Rubio at State builds FP credentials. Buttigieg, Newsom, Whitmer all making early moves for Dem primary.

🔥 This Week's Signals

🚨 Iran strike ready by Saturday

⚠ Iran drones repositioned (Russia cover)

! Board of Peace — $17B+ pledged

! FEMA deployments suspended

★ McCarthy → Heritage Fellow

→ DOJ: 52 court order violations

Faction Power Index Feb 19 '26

MAGA Populist

↓

National Conservative

↑

New Right Intellectual

→

Post-Liberal Catholic

→

Establishment

↑

Libertarian Remnant

→

Note: NatCon up (FP moment). Establishment absorbing Heritage exiles via AAF.

👤 Key Players to Watch

Marco RubioState — Iran negotiations lead

Jared KushnerIran/Ukraine talks (whistleblower overhang)

Steve WitkoffSpecial Envoy — Geneva/Riyadh

JD VanceVP — 2028 frontrunner (53% NH)

Daniel McCarthyHeritage Fellow (NEW)

Chris KlompRFK Jr CoS (HHS control effort)

Tulsi GabbardDNI — whistleblower drama

💰 Money Flows

Board of Peace nations$17B+ pledged

Musk → DOGE + platform↑↑↑

Thiel network → NatCon↑↑

Adelson → Rubio orbitwatching

Watch: Defense stocks if Iran strike happens. Adelson if Rubio 2028 solidifies.

🚨 IRAN — Decision Imminent SAT READY

US Posture

Military ready for strikes by Saturday. Trump told "10 days" decision window. Considering "weeks-long" campaign. USS Abraham Lincoln (Arabian Sea) + USS Gerald R. Ford (en route) carrier groups. MQ-9 Reaper drones with strike capability deployed. MQ-4C Triton surveillance over Gulf.

Iran Response

Repositioning strike drones under Russia drill cover. Joint exercises with Russia in Strait of Hormuz = camouflage for asset movement. IRGC "calculated escalation." Preparing for potential "decapitation strike" on leadership (Shamkhani appointment signal). Geneva talks ongoing but posturing.

UK: Blocked RAF bases for US attack

Poland: Citizens evacuate Iran immediately

Russia: Urging "restraint" / providing cover

🎯 Iran Decision Factors

Nuclear ProgressNear-threshold

Iran's enrichment = breakout capability. "Deal or force" binary.

Midterm RiskHigh

War before Nov 2026 = political gamble. Rally effect vs exhaustion.

Alliance GapsReal

UK blocking bases. Gulf states nervous. Go-it-alone risk.

Oil MarketsVolatile

Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. 20% of global oil transits.

🕊️ Board of Peace — Gaza Track TODAY

$17B+ Committed

Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace event. International Stabilization Force + local police commitments. Humanitarian/reconstruction funding.

Key GapsMurky

European criticism of "murky funding and political mandate." Some allies excluded.

Conservative ReactionTBD

Restrainers: peace-building = good. Hawks: distraction from Iran?

🇺🇦 Ukraine Track TUE/WED

Geneva Talks Round 3Feb 20-21

Witkoff + Kushner mediating. Trump pressuring Zelenskyy.

Key GapSecurity

Ukraine wants US security commitment. Trump offering only 15 years.

Orbán OfferBudapest

Hungary offering to host future trilateral. Rubio visited this week.

📊 FP Faction Split — If Strike Happens Scenario Analysis

Hawks (Support)

Rubio, Haley wing, neocon remnant. "Iran can't go nuclear." Alliance-compatible framing. Defense establishment.

Skeptics (Cautious)

TAC, some NatCons, restrainers. "Not another Middle East quagmire." Vance's historical positioning here. Will he stay quiet?

Opponents (Rare)

Libertarian remnant, Tucker orbit. "War for Israel." Marginal but loud. Will test MAGA coalition.

Key dynamic: Iran strike would force Vance to choose between his restrainer credentials and Trump loyalty. Rubio positioned to lead hawkish case from State. This is the 2028 FP differentiation moment.

🏆 2028 GOP Primary — Vance Dominant, Rubio Building UPDATED

JD Vance — Clear Frontrunner

53% in NH primary (Pine Tree Poll). +38 nationally (Focaldata). Trump's heir apparent. Iran decision = potential defining moment — does he stay silent or position?

Risk: Thiel patronage = "tech industry" perception. NatCon econ populism vs Silicon Valley.

Marco Rubio — FP Credentials

Munich speech established "NatCon + alliances" lane. Orbán visit this week. Iran crisis = chance to lead hawkish case from State. Building case independent of Trump.

Watch: If Iran strike happens and goes well, Rubio's FP credibility cements.

2028 GOP dynamic: Trump hasn't endorsed. Vance = MAGA continuity. Rubio = NatCon but alliance-affirming. DeSantis, Youngkin, Scott in background. Iran strike decision may crystallize lanes.

🔵 2028 Dem Field Early

Pete ButtigiegLeading

Heading to Nevada this week. OH, GA, PA campaign plans. Radio presence.

Gavin NewsomActive

Book tour: TN, GA, SC, FL, then NH. "Red state outreach." UK energy deal.

Gretchen WhitmerStumble

FP stumble in Germany. "Why 4,000 miles if can't answer basic questions?"

AOCFP debut

Munich presence. First FP vision. Greenland threats "not a joke."

📋 Domestic Policy — Live

DHS ShutdownACTIVE

3rd funding lapse of Trump 47. TSA working without pay.

FEMA FrozenFeb 18

Stop-travel order. Hundreds of aid workers suspended. Disaster areas affected.

DOJ Violations52 orders

NJ acknowledgment. "DOJ isn't built for this" — Atlantic analysis.

Refugee PolicyEscalation

Refugees without green cards now subject to arrest. Legal challenges coming.

👔 Personnel Updates

Daniel McCarthy→ Heritage Distinguished Fellow (TODAY)

Chris Klomp→ RFK Jr CoS at HHS

Gail Slater← OUT from DOJ Antitrust

Jeremy CarlState nom failing (Claremont)

McCarthy hire: Heritage reinforcing conservative intellectual credentials. Former ISI VP, Modern Age editor. "Conservative thought, America's founding, republican order."

📰 Publication Shifts This Week Feb 19

TAC

Restraint / Realist

Prince Andrew, Rubio MSC, Europe-US relations

Foreign Affairs

Establishment FP

"Multipolar Delusion" — US unipolarity intact

Heritage/Daily Signal

NatCon Policy

McCarthy hire, accreditation targeting for 2026

Federalist

MAGA / Culture

Immigration, 2028 coverage

Gap: Nobody analyzing Iran strike implications for conservative coalition. TAC will be skeptical; neocons discredited; who makes hawkish case to NatCon audience?

🎯 Strategic Bottom Line

Iran decision dominates everything. If strike happens: FP hawks vindicated, Rubio positioned, restrainers must choose loyalty vs principles, coalition tested. If deal emerges: Trump as dealmaker narrative, Vance safe, less 2028 differentiation. Domestically: DHS shutdown + FEMA freeze = optics problem but not crisis. Personnel: McCarthy → Heritage = intellectual reinforcement; RFK Jr still being managed. 2028: Vance commanding lead but Iran could force uncomfortable positioning. Buttigieg emerging as Dem frontrunner. Nobody analyzing hawkish-but-NatCon synthesis for Iran — gap opportunity.

✅ Opportunities

🔥 Iran Hawk-NatCon Synthesis

Who makes hawkish case to NatCon audience? TAC will be skeptical. Neocons discredited. Gap exists for "muscular but not interventionist" voice.

Board of Peace Analysis

$17B committed today. European criticism of "murky mandate." First serious analysis of what this institution actually IS.

Vance-Rubio Differentiation

Iran forces choice. Track Vance silence/positioning vs Rubio leadership at State. 2028 lanes crystallizing.

🚨 Risks to Monitor

Iran Strike → Quagmire

"Weeks-long" campaign = not surgical. Hormuz closure = oil shock. Midterm risk if goes badly.

Alliance Isolation

UK blocking bases. European criticism mounting. Go-it-alone narrative damaging.

FEMA Political Fallout

If disaster hits during deployment freeze = devastating optics. California fires still fresh.

DOJ Credibility

52 court violations. "Not built for this." Pattern of non-compliance catching up.

📊 Tracking Metrics

Watch Daily:
• Iran strike decision timing
• Vance public statements re: Iran
• Oil prices / Hormuz traffic
• DHS shutdown resolution
• Ukraine talks outcome

Leading Indicators:
• Carrier group movements
• Gulf state statements
• Rubio press appearances
• TAC editorial direction
• Conservative Twitter on Iran

📌 This Week's Priority Signals

1. IRAN DECISION (SAT)
Military ready by weekend. Trump "10 days" window. Watch for Geneva talks breakdown, carrier positioning, Trump statements. This is THE story.

2. UKRAINE TALKS (TUE-WED)
Geneva Round 3. Witkoff/Kushner mediating. Security commitment gap. If collapses, attention fully on Iran. If progress, dual-track continues.

3. VANCE POSITIONING
Does he break silence on Iran? Support strike = loyalty, breaks restrainer brand. Stay quiet = ambiguous. Oppose = unthinkable. Watch carefully.